On October 25, 2024, Leadership Now Project released a memo describing findings from electorate surveying and modeling it conducted in partnership with Applecart in four key NY congressional districts.

The effort surveyed thousands of female voters in two districts on Long Island (NY-01 and NY-04) and two upstate New York districts (NY-18 and NY-19). Each of the Democratic candidates in those races are Leadership Now Priority Candidates to Watch.

The survey results and modeling illuminate which women voters should truly be considered moderate voters, which are swing voters, what the overlap of moderate and swing voters is, and what messages can best move those voters towards the Democratic candidate.

There are more moderate / swing voters who affiliate with a party than most assume:

Of the estimated 149,000 women voters across the four districts who are modeled to be Moderate & Swing voters, 41% are undeclared in terms of party affiliation, while 32% are registered Democrats and 27% are registered Republicans.
This compares with the TargetSmart “off the shelf” model which identifies 221,000 “moderate” women voters in the same four districts. They model more than 90% of those moderates as undeclared, with fewer than 10 percent registered as Democrats or Republicans.

These moderate / swing voters are most persuaded to move towards the Democratic candidate with moderate messaging on abortion that incorporates an economic opportunity message. That kind of messaging approach can increase support for Democratic candidates by as much as 30% among these voters.

Read the memo here.