Insights from the Midterms
Two weeks after Election Day, one result is crystal clear: the elections were a resounding win for American democracy. Election denialism was on the ballot, and in state after state, it lost.
Do the election results indicate we are at an inflection point? The events of the last few weeks – the midterm rejection of election denial, the repudiation of Trump jumping back in the ring, Musk’s self-inflicted Twitter wounds, and the implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire – suggest that a particularly toxic brand of hubris that has become a central feature of our politics may have reached its limits.
While there are certainly risks ahead, I believe we have a unique opportunity to change the trajectory of our democracy. First up? Keep the pressure on Congress to pass the Electoral Count Act in the lame duck session (December). And then watch closely the Supreme Court case on the "independent state legislature theory”; our amicus brief argues that an unchecked state legislature is a risk to the economy and the rule of law. Oral arguments commence December 7th.
There is much more to do in order to protect, innovate and rebuild our democracy. It’s up to us to seize this moment.
Five Key Election Takeaways for Democracy
Pro-democracy candidates beat election deniers in key governor races in Arizona (Hobbs), Pennsylvania (Shapiro), Michigan (Whitmer), and Wisconsin (Evers). Governors and Secretaries of State oversee state election machinery and legislative decision-making on elections. The prospect that an election denier could hold such a position was frightening. But, in every swing state where they ran for Governor or Secretary of State, they lost. Republicans who didn’t embrace election denial, like Raffensperger in Georgia, fared far better.
Michigan voters make their voices heard, prioritizing democracy. A ballot initiative strengthening access to voting and protecting against election interference in the state’s constituencies was resoundingly approved. Exceptional leaders beat election deniers to retain the top three statewide positions. Implementation of objective redistricting – secured in a citizen-led ballot initiative in 2018 – led to more competitive state legislature races. Democrats won majorities in the state House and state Senate for the first time in 40 years and as in other states, Michigan voters used the ballot to prevent restrictive abortion laws that lacked popular support.
New York turns competitive: New York’s rushed redistricting led to multiple new competitive House seats, 4 of which Democrats lost. The complacency of NY Democrats, a top of the ticket that failed to generate enthusiasm among voters (Hochul’s margin lagged Biden’s by 17 pts), and a sense of frustration with crime and other local issues appeared to be at play. New York stood in contrast to Ohio, where the courts found newly drawn maps unlawfully gerrymandered but refused to mandate new maps (which the NY courts did). The result is that unlike NY, Ohio’s distribution of Congressional seats remains disconnected from the actual partisan breakdown of voters in the state.
Election and campaign finance reforms continue to win over voters: Nevada voters approved final five primaries with ranked choice voting, Connecticut voters backed early voting, and a divided Arizona electorate overwhelmingly approved a measure curbing undisclosed spending in political races. At the municipal level, several cities approved ranked choice voting systems, including Seattle, WA; Portland, OR; and Portland, ME.
Talented new Gen X candidates prevail: Newcomers to Governor’s mansions include dynamic, pragmatic Gen Xers from Wes Moore in Maryland to Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and Maura Healey in Massachusetts – who each won by double digits. Similarly, compelling candidates retained their seats in tough House races, Angie Craig (MN), Abigail Spanberger (VA), Katie Porter (CA), and Elissa Slotkin (MI) among them.
Leadership Now Members Take A Bold Stand for Democracy
In the 2022 midterms, the business leaders in Leadership Now’s membership took action. Here are four ways our organization and members contributed:
Making the business case that democracy was at stake in 2022: Leadership Now focused on making the case that democracy was a central issue in the midterm elections. Our unique analyses helped explain the risks and dynamics in 2022 for members and wider business audiences, including in major media outlets. Our Election Risks analysis and ESG & Democracy memo were shared widely with C-suite executives, Boards and investors. We polled independent women in swing states and launched a state Democracy Report Card to inform state level priorities. Weekly member briefings, the annual member meeting in NY, and numerous member-hosted events convened leading thinkers and political leaders and drew attention to the critical issues at stake this cycle.
Standing up against an election denier in Wisconsin: In an ad viewed 4M+ times, and produced by the Leadership Now-affiliated Project Democracy PAC, business leaders and Leadership Now members endorsed Gov. Evers as the only candidate committed to certifying elections regardless of the result. Evers won by ~90K votes against Michels.
Ensuring democracy is protected in the Michigan constitution: Leadership Now endorsed the successful Promote the Vote Ballot Initiative (which won on a 60% to 40% margin) and helped secure critical business endorsements, including from the Detroit Regional Chamber. The initiative protects access to voting and reduces the politicization of elections.
Supporting highly qualified candidates that mobilized the middle: Unlike most midterm elections, the majority of independent voters broke for the party in the White House. Leadership Now supported highly-qualified candidates for Congress and Governor who successfully inspired voters in the middle including our 2022 Candidates to Watch list. WelcomePAC, a Leadership Now partner, invested in races where compelling moderates ran but were overlooked by the Democratic Party and considered unwinnable. Two such races, CO-3 and CA-41, where election deniers Lauren Boebert and Ken Calvert lost by exceedingly small margins. These races reinforce the case for overhauling candidate funding models.
